COVID-19: without new measures, Quebec “was going into the wall”

Without the measures imposed since 1^er October by the Legault government, the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths have increased “exponentially”, reveal the most recent scenarios unveiled by the INSPQ, which highlight the need for an additional effort to flatten the curve.

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“Without any measure, we went into the wall”, summed up D^r Jocelyne Sauvé, specialist doctor at the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ).

According to the latest projections presented by D^r Marc Brisson, if Quebecers had continued to maintain the same number of contacts as at the end of the summer, the number of new cases of COVID-19 would have exceeded 4,000 per day during the month of November.

If nothing had been done, more than 200 new hospitalizations per day could have been recorded as of December. On the death side, the median curve could have continued to decline upwards to exceed 100 per day towards the end of the year.

However, this is a purely “hypothetical” scenario, since since then, several additional health measures have been put in place, explained Friday D^r Brisson.

Extra effort needed

Taking into consideration the reduction in contacts resulting from recent measures implemented in schools, the closure of bars and restaurants and restrictions on the home, INSPQ projections suggest a slowdown in the epidemic.

But without an additional effort from Quebecers, the indicators will continue to increase despite everything, predicts the research group led by D^r Brisson.

On the other hand, if citizens reduce their non-essential contacts even further, if only at the rate of one in four, while ensuring the utmost respect for physical distinction, INSPQ experts believe that it would be possible to quickly stabilize the epidemic in Quebec, and even reduce the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.