COVID-19: the top of the second wave already in sight?

Despite the record numbers of COVID-19 cases recorded at the start of the last week, the progression of the disease has greatly slowed in Quebec and Ontario, suggesting that these two provinces are already approaching the peak of the second wave.

• Read also: COVID-19: 843 new cases in Quebec and 12 additional deaths

• Read also: [EN DIRECT 12 OCTOBRE 2020] All developments in the COVID-19 pandemic

With several days of records above the 1,000 case mark, Quebec once again found itself at the top of the Canadian toll with 7,674 infections recorded from October 5 to 11 inclusively, good for an average of 1,096.3 cases per day.

However, if we compare these figures with those for the week of September 28 to October 4, the average number of daily infections has increased by only 17% from one week to another. This is a marked slowdown in the pandemic, after increases of 50.5% and 75% in previous weeks.

The most populous province in Canada followed the same trend as Quebec. With 4,940 positive tests in its labs, Ontario has maintained an average of 705.7 cases per day. This is an increase of 13.1%, much lower than that of the previous week, which was 46.5%.

These encouraging data come two weeks after the imposition of the first containment measures in Quebec, followed by others in the last week. Ontario has also announced restrictions during this period, including in the most affected cities and requiring the wearing of masks throughout the province.

However, it will remain to be seen whether the long Thanksgiving weekend will have a deleterious effect on the statistics in the coming days. On Monday, Quebec recorded 843 new cases, a number below the average for the last week and below the 1000 contamination mark for a second day in a row. Ontario, he did not unveil a balance sheet because of the holiday.

Increase in deaths and hospitalizations

These encouraging figures should not, however, obscure the growth in the number of hospitalizations and deaths, particularly in Quebec. During the week of October 5 to 11, 75 Quebecers died while carrying the virus, against 53 during the previous week (+ 42%). Twelve deaths were added to Quebec’s heavy toll on Monday.

Ontario has seen its death toll rise to 30 deaths, compared to 25 the previous week.

Not just in the center of the country

Although they are by far the most affected, Ontario and Quebec are not the only provinces to post heavy results.

All things considered, New Brunswick, in particular, has had its worst week since the start of the pandemic. The Maritimes province, relatively untouched to date, reported 71 infections from Oct. 5 to 11, in addition to six new cases unveiled Monday, amid outbreaks in Campbellton and Moncton.

In doing so, the province has now counted 278 cases since the start of the pandemic. This is a 28% increase in just one week.

Further west, Manitoba also had one of its worst weeks to date, even tying its record of 96 cases in one day, which was set in August. Saskatchewan, which was more successful than Manitoba in stemming its first big wave in August, also posted a strong upward trend in its balance sheets, including the announcement of 48 cases on Monday.

A total of 975 cases of COVID-19 were added to the Canadian toll on Monday, increasing it to 183,837 contaminations to date. Of that number, 9,627 Canadians have succumbed to the disease, 14 more than the day before.

Note, however, that Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia took a break on Monday and will resume publishing their data on Tuesday. These will cover four days in the case of the two western provinces.

The situation in the country

• Quebec: 86,976 cases (5,965 deaths)
• Ontario: 59,139 cases (3,005 deaths)
• Alberta: 19,995 cases (282 deaths)
• British Columbia: 10,185 cases (245 deaths)
• Manitoba: 2,655 cases (34 deaths)
• Saskatchewan: 2,140 cases (25 deaths)
• Nova Scotia: 1,092 cases (65 deaths)
• Newfoundland and Labrador: 283 cases (4 deaths)
• New Brunswick: 278 cases (2 deaths)
• Prince Edward Island: 61 cases
• Yukon: 15 cases
• Northwest Territories: 5 cases
• Nunavut: 0 cases
• Canadian returnees: 13 cases

Total: 183,837 cases (9,627 deaths)