According to a Léger surveyThe newspaper, Valérie Plante, mayor of Montreal, sees her support crumble. The mere mention of the name of his predecessor, Denis Coderre, makes them melt in the sun.
If Denis Coderre were to run in 2021, 32% of respondents say they would vote for him, and barely 20% would vote for Valérie Plante. Even among 18-34 year-olds – fertile ground for Projet Montréal – its support is still 22%.
At the other end of the 20, it’s quite the opposite. Régis Labeaume, mayor of Quebec, throne without division with 52% of the voting intentions. At 72%, his satisfaction rate is stratospheric.
Valérie Plante has to get up at night to envy her. According to Léger, no less than 60% of Montrealers want “change”. Here she is very far from her decisive victory against Denis Coderre in 2017 with 51% of the vote.
On all counts, the yellow lights are multiplying for Mayor Plante. However, it is difficult to pinpoint a single factor explaining it.
However, as soon as she was elected in 2017, the one her advertisements boldly presented as “the man for the job” was greeted as a tremendous breath of fresh air. Since then, more and more Montrealers have become disillusioned.
His real problem is in disenchantment. It must be said that the mayoress of “mobility” was especially distinguished by a city that has become impractical other than by bicycle. Even on the public transport front, 41% of respondents say they have seen no improvement.
The rain of construction sites is not however his fault. Neither the economic suffocation of the city center by the pandemic. In fact, his problem is much broader.
By dint of seeing their quality of life decline in their daily lives, disenchantment has gradually set in between Valérie Plante and a growing share of her citizens.
If the pandemic is causing so many Montrealers to flee to the suburbs and the countryside, it is no coincidence. Over the past few years, the pleasure of living in Montreal has been lost. Point.
Access to the property is also overpriced. Quality housing is extremely rare and too expensive. Which, inevitably, adds to the gloominess in the streets of the metropolis.
If it was necessary that in addition to the pandemic, Montrealers also see themselves walled up this winter by the fault of badly or not de-iced sidewalks as usual, the mayor’s rating would take all the more for her cold.
But beware. The fate of Valérie Plante is far from being cast. At least four significant elements could still work in its favor.
The uncertainty. Will Denis Coderre risk a comeback without the armored guarantee of a victory?
The potential division of the vote. If several candidates run for mayor, Valérie Plante could sneak up for a second term.
The high rate of undecided. At 27%, including 37% of non-Francophones, that’s a lot of Montrealers just as unattractive to the rejuvenated and more humble version of ex-mayor Coderre. At least for the moment.
Finally, there is time. One year before the next municipal elections, a lot of water can still flow under the bridges of the Montreal electorate.